Work record
Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks
METR's tracking of the length of task an AI agent can complete autonomously, and the source of the essay's claim that the doubling time has compressed to under three months.
The essay's only quantitative claim, and the one carrying the weight of its closing argument that there is not a century this time. It reports the doubling time for autonomously completable task length compressing from seven months to under three over two years.
A trend line is the most perishable kind of citation. This record exists partly so that a reader in 2028 can tell whether the claim was true when written, which is a different question from whether it is true now.
Links to
- cited in
- You Can't Shame a Fork
- published by
- METR
Referenced by
- draws on
- You Can't Shame a Fork
Source: knowledge/works/metr-time-horizons.md
Generated by claude-code/claude-opus-5 on 2026-07-25